运费大涨，镍不锈钢价格震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel and stainless steel is weak but in line with expectations. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of price trends. Nickel is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound trend, while stainless steel will follow nickel's trend and also maintain a range - bound state [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 17, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 135,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 342,807 (- 8,109) lots, and the open interest was 207,749 (- 438) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to an expected reduction in supply, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, inventories are rising, and demand is stable but in a consumption off - season [1] Macro Aspect - The weakening of the US dollar provided some support to the commodity market, but the non - escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation had limited impact on nickel prices. Macroeconomic data was below expectations, weakening market confidence in global demand recovery [2] Nickel Ore Aspect - Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up international oil prices, causing a significant increase in the ocean freight of Philippine nickel ore. The price acceptance of iron mills for high - price nickel ore is limited [3] Spot Aspect - The nickel price fluctuated weakly during the day, and the spot premium of refined nickel was generally stable. Downstream enterprises made rigid - demand purchases, and the market trading atmosphere was mild [3] Strategy - The future nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operations [4] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 17, 2026, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,095 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,456 (- 63,950) lots, and the open interest was 115,319 (- 4,171) lots [5] - The stainless steel price is still mainly affected by the nickel price. In terms of fundamentals, supply pressure is increasing, and consumption is slowly recovering. The expected increase in consumption in April will support prices [5] - Affected by increased production and inventory, the spot price of stainless steel has loosened, and the market activity is average [5] Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The recommended strategy is neutral [6]