格林大华期货早盘提示：钢矿-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the steel and ore market will be oscillating bullish. It provides support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, and suggests trading strategies such as holding long positions in steel and ore and a long spread strategy between hot-rolled coil and rebar [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar, iron ore, and hot-rolled coil closed higher [1] Important Information - From January to February 2026, the total social electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year-on-year [1] - Ukraine made a final anti-dumping sunset review ruling on Chinese steel wire ropes and cables [1] - On March 17, the Ministry of Finance released the 2025 China Fiscal Policy Implementation Report, stating that a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued in 2026, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, improving transfer payment efficiency, optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal and financial coordination [1] - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei rejected the proposal of "easing tensions or achieving peace" with the United States and said that the United States and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation [1] - Iran's President confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. The Speaker of the Islamic Parliament of Iran said that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-war state [1] Market Logic - On the 17th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port remained stable. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' inquiries were weak. Specific prices are as follows: 60.8% PB powder at 789 (unchanged), Super Special powder at 671 (unchanged), 61.6% PB lump at 900 (unchanged), Carajás fines at 948 (unchanged), and SPGF mixed powder at 759 (unchanged) [1] - On the 17th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3250 (unchanged), and the price of Shanghai Ansteel/Benxi Steel hot-rolled coil was 3280 (unchanged) [1] - On the 17th, the port coke spot market remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The trade collection volume at the two ports increased compared to the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports decreased slightly compared to the previous working day. Rizhao Port's inventory was 43 (down 1), Qingdao Port's inventory was 69 (unchanged), and the total inventory was 112 (down 3.3 compared to last week). The prices of various coke varieties at the port are as follows: Trade spot cash out: quasi-primary (wet quenched) coke at 1470 yuan/ton, quasi-primary (dry quenched) coke at 1670 yuan/ton, primary (wet quenched) coke at 1570 yuan/ton, coke particles at 1200 yuan/ton, and coke powder at 970 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the steel and ore market will be oscillating bullish. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200. The support level for hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [1] - For the single-sided strategy, continue to hold long positions in steel and ore, and continuously raise the stop-loss line [1] - For the arbitrage strategy, continue to hold the long spread strategy between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The closing price difference at night was 165. It is recommended to set the stop-loss level at a spread of 120 and the take-profit level at 200 [1]