下游排产稳定，供需偏紧趋势未改

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate market continues to destock, and the spot supply has not shown significant looseness. The supply - demand tightness trend remains unchanged. However, recent frequent macro - disturbances, geopolitical wars impacting the non - ferrous sector, and capital flowing to the energy - chemical sector have led to the lithium carbonate market being driven by sentiment and experiencing wide - range price fluctuations. The trend of inventory destocking and strong supply - demand in the industry has not changed. In the short term, it is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 17, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 159,620 yuan/ton and closed at 155,320 yuan/ton, with a 0.39% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 173,439 lots, and the open interest was 308,842 lots (the previous day's open interest was 310,683 lots). The current basis was - 80 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,465 lots, a change of 72 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 153,000 - 163,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 150,000 - 159,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,225 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Supply: According to SMM statistics, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production this week was 23,426 tons, a 3.7% increase month - on - month. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a 15.1% decrease month - on - month and a 29.7% increase year - on - year. The domestic lithium carbonate production from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year [1] - Inventory: According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 16,292 tons, a decrease of 1,184 tons month - on - month; the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, an increase of 1,890 tons month - on - month; other inventories were 37,020 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory is still in a destocking pattern [1] Strategy - The domestic lithium carbonate market continues to destock, and the supply - demand tightness trend remains unchanged. Due to recent macro - disturbances, the market is affected by sentiment and prices fluctuate widely. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. In the short term, it is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [2] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly wait and see in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [4] Influencing Factors - 1. The consumer end continues to exceed expectations - 2. The mining end disturbances exceed expectations - 3. The impact of macro - sentiment and open interest changes [4]