房地产行业报告（2026.3.9-2026.3.15）：楼市政策托底与市场转暖并行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is experiencing a "small spring" in 2026, with better performance compared to 2025. However, it emphasizes that this is more about a reduction in price declines and the emergence of structural opportunities rather than a turning point between bull and bear markets. It suggests that stock prices may stabilize approximately 4-6 months ahead of housing prices, with a positive outlook for real estate stocks in the second half of the year, particularly recommending China Resources Land [4] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 161.83 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 1,373.51 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 101.19 million square meters, down 41% year-on-year but up 14% month-on-month. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a 47% year-on-year decline but a 36.5% month-on-month increase in average transaction area [5][13] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the past week, the second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities was 237.88 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,016.41 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 142.67 million square meters, down 43.3% year-on-year but up 17.5% month-on-month [6][18] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 31 new residential land supplies and 16 residential land transactions. The average transaction price for residential land was 8,348 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 8.21%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.11 percentage points [6][26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.53%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.19%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.72 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index dropped by 2.08% [29][31]