黑色商品日报（2026 年 3 月 18 日）-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating strongly [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating strongly [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The market confidence is boosted by the positive growth of fixed - asset investment, and the raw material prices support the cost. The short - term steel futures is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - Iron Ore: With the supply and demand factors intertwined and the geopolitical situation raising cost expectations, the short - term iron ore futures is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - Coking Coal: The production is rising steadily, and the downstream demand is picking up. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coke: The cost and demand factors are both present, and the short - term coke futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The cost has support, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the short - term manganese silicon futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The demand has support, the cost is stable, and the inventory is low. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the short - term ferrosilicon futures is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2605 contract was 3148 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,500 lots in positions. Spot prices rose steadily, and the trading volume declined. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive, and raw material prices were strong, which is expected to support the short - term strong oscillation of the rebar futures [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2605 was 816.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3,000 lots in positions. The supply and demand were intertwined, and the geopolitical situation affected the cost. The short - term iron ore futures is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of coking coal 2605 contract was 1176 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.42%, with a decrease of 10,167 lots in positions. The production was rising, and the downstream demand was picking up. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coke: The closing price of coke 2605 contract was 1732 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 0.8%, with a decrease of 821 lots in positions. The cost and demand factors coexisted, and the short - term coke futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6240 yuan/ton, up 0.84% from the previous day, and the positions decreased by 646 lots to 364,100 lots. The cost had support, and the supply and demand were relatively stable. The short - term manganese silicon futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5928 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous day, and the positions increased by 8393 lots to 180,500 lots. The demand had support, the cost was stable, and the inventory was low. The short - term ferrosilicon futures is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The data shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months) and basis for various commodities including steel, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [3]. - Profit and Spread: The data presents the latest values and changes of profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) for different commodities [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for steel, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][8][10][11][13]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts for steel, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][20][22]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 05 - 10, 10 - 01, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) for steel, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][31][33][34][36]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts presenting the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) for different commodities [37][38][39][40]. - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [42][43][44][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [48]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [48]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [48]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [49].