软商品日报-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.76% to 68.71 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 0.16% to 15,415 yuan per ton. The international market has the U.S. cotton futures price in a phased high - level shock. The situation in the Middle East, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, and the firm oil price affect the upward range of the U.S. cotton futures price. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell, and the stock index was weak. The National Development and Reform Commission announced the issuance of 300,000 tons of sliding - duty import quotas for cotton processing, increasing the supply expectation and bringing short - term pressure. In the long - term, the focus is on the Middle East situation and new cotton planting, and it is expected to maintain a shock in the short - term and have certain support in the long - term [2]. - For sugar, the estimated sugarcane planting area in Brazil in 2026 is 9.373731 million hectares, a 1.3% decrease from the previous month's estimate and a 2.0% decrease from the previous year. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 700.38 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month's estimate and a 0.4% decrease from the previous year. The spot prices of sugar in various regions have been adjusted down. The raw sugar futures price is still in a high - level shock. The domestic market is affected by geopolitical, energy, and sentiment factors, and the futures price has a slight reduction in positions and a downward trend. It is recommended to continue to treat it as a shock and pay attention to the import data from January to February and the spot market trading situation [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Research Viewpoints - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.76% to 68.71 cents per pound, Zhengzhou cotton main contract fell 0.16% to 15,415 yuan per ton, and the main contract position decreased by 1,776 lots to 710,200 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index rose 30 yuan to 16,610 yuan per ton. The international market has factors affecting the upward range of the U.S. cotton futures price. The domestic market has the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rising and then falling. The issuance of import quotas increases supply expectation and brings short - term pressure. In the long - term, the focus is on the Middle East situation and new cotton planting [2]. - Sugar: The estimated sugarcane planting area and output in Brazil in 2026 have decreased. The spot prices of sugar in various regions have been adjusted down. The raw sugar futures price is in a high - level shock. The domestic market is affected by multiple factors, and the futures price has a slight reduction in positions and a downward trend. Attention should be paid to import data and spot market trading [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 75, unchanged from the previous day. The main basis is 1,406, an increase of 2. The Xinjiang spot price is 16,655 yuan per ton, a decrease of 60, and the national spot price is 16,821 yuan per ton, a decrease of 63 [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 27, an increase of 7. The main basis is 64, an increase of 56. The Nanning spot price is 5,460 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,470 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 [3]. Market Information - On March 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,482, a decrease of 13 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 293 [4]. - On March 17, the cotton arrival prices in various domestic regions were: 16,655 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,812 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,887 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,976 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On March 17, the comprehensive yarn load was 57.6, an increase of 1.3 from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 16.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 60.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 24.9, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous day [4]. - On March 17, the sugar spot prices were: 5,460 yuan per ton in Nanning, unchanged from the previous day; 5,470 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from the previous day [4]. - On March 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton and sugar, to show the historical data trends [7][9][11][13][15][16][18] Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research, and has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won many awards [22].