马士基继续调涨4月第一周价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery, and Maersk continues to raise the freight rate in the first week of April, which boosts the valuation of the 04 contract. Considering the high geopolitical risks, the volatility of the EC2604 contract may increase, and investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [6][7]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's reopening in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of demand from Asia to Europe. However, future price fluctuations are expected to be significant, and investors need to respond flexibly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different shipping schedules. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK13 quote is 1455/2350, and WEEK14 is 1625/2610. HPL's quotes for the second half of March range from 2445 - 3555 dollars/FEU, and for the first half of April, it ranges from 4855 - 5035 dollars/FEU [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force Commander said that Iran's "devastating" strike against the US and Israel has entered the "acceleration phase" [4]. 3.3 Static Supply - As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided, indicating that the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 [4][5]. 3.4 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in March, April, and May is provided. There are also details about empty sailings and TBNs. The transfer of ships from the Middle East to the European line increases supply pressure and may affect European line freight rates [6]. 3.5 Freight Rate and Contract Situation - Maersk's price in the first week of April is 2600 - 2700 dollars/FEU (equivalent to about 1900 points in SCFIS), which boosts the valuation of the April contract. Major shipping companies have announced emergency fuel surcharges, but Maersk has stopped collecting them. The settlement price of the April contract is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th [6]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: None. - Arbitrage Strategy: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10]. 3.7 Market Data - As of March 17, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 51,979.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,987.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes on different dates are also given [9].