棉价延续震荡，纸浆大幅下跌

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Report Core View - The global cotton supply - demand pattern is generally loose this year, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 cotton season may tighten. In China, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, but consumption also increased due to expanded yarn - spinning capacity. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly. With the expected reduction in Xinjiang's planting area in the 26/27 season, the medium - to - long - term cotton price center may continue to rise [2] - The international sugar price rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices caused by the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar harvest progress is significantly delayed, and the production in Guangxi and Yunnan is expected to exceed expectations. After the festival, the domestic sugar is still in the inventory - accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [4] - The pulp price dropped significantly. The supply pressure of global wood pulp is expected to weaken in 2026, but the domestic port inventory remains at a historical high due to insufficient terminal demand. Although the paper production capacity is expanding, the overall pulp fundamentals remain weak [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,415 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,655 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,821 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton [1] - Market Analysis: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is short - term positive for ICE US cotton and has limited inhibitory effect on Zhengzhou cotton, which helps narrow the domestic - foreign price difference. The medium - to - long - term outlook for US cotton is positive, and the medium - to - long - term cotton price center in China may continue to rise [2] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the domestic - foreign price difference, and attention should be paid to the reduction in new - season planting area and potential reserve - release policies [2] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,406 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] - Market Analysis: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price was weakly sorted. The international sugar price rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar harvest is delayed, and the inventory is accumulating [4] - Strategy: Neutral. The recent rise is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds, with limited fundamental improvement and upward pressure. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,088 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan/ton (-2.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton [5] - Market Analysis: The pulp futures price dropped significantly. The supply pressure of global wood pulp is expected to weaken in 2026, but the domestic port inventory remains high due to insufficient terminal demand. The overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term pulp price may continue to consolidate at a low level [7]