多空驱动交织，油脂震荡调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated. Driven by rising crude oil, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of biofuel policies, the market is short - term bullish, but the fundamental demand is weak. The strengthening of the energy attribute has driven the prices of palm oil and soybean oil to rise in tandem with crude oil. The tense situation in the Middle East has enhanced the economic viability of biodiesel, supporting the prices of oils and fats. However, high inventories and the post - holiday consumption off - season have made downstream procurement cautious. Overall, the oils and fats are oscillating [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9954.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 56 yuan and a decline of - 0.56%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8644.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 72.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9833.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 115.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.16% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 110.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.10%, and the spot basis was P05 - 104.00, with a month - on - month change of - 54.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8770.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 120.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 1.35%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 126.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 170.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 527.00, with a month - on - month change of - 55.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 594 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 600 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1238 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) C&F price was 1220 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 534 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 472 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 299 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 283 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 130 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of easing, international crude oil prices remain high, and the shipping freight for imported soybeans in China continues to rise. On March 16, the shipping freight for soybeans from the US Gulf to China was quoted at 59 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the same period last week; the freight from the US West to China was quoted at 33 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the freight from Brazil to China was quoted at 52 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [2]