特朗普计划进一步放松委内瑞拉制裁

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The next stage of the Iran war is expected to revolve around the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. The long - term interruption of the Strait is not in the interests of all countries, but the recovery path remains unclear [2] - Oil prices will maintain high volatility in the short - term due to geopolitical situations, and it is risky to participate in the crude oil market currently. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.71 to $96.21 per barrel, a 2.90% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $3.21 to $103.42 per barrel, a 3.20% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.74% at 756 yuan per barrel [1] - BP issued a shutdown notice to the employees represented by the United Steelworkers (USW) regarding the Whiting refinery. The shutdown will take effect on March 19 [1] - Iraq has cut its daily crude oil production from about 4.2 million barrels to just over 1 million barrels due to the interruption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East war. Iraq is negotiating with Iran to ensure that some of its oil tankers can pass through the Strait [1] - An oil - containing wastewater fire accident occurred at the periphery of the Olmeca refinery of Pemex, resulting in 5 deaths [1] - The Trump administration plans to further relax sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to increase crude oil production. Measures may be announced this week, including issuing more individual licenses and establishing a broader mechanism to allow more companies to enter the Venezuelan market. Companies expected to be authorized by the U.S. Treasury to operate in Venezuela include a subsidiary of ONGC Videsh, Maha Capital AB, and J&F Investimentos [1] - The Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq said that they have decided to export oil through the Kurdistan Region pipeline as soon as conditions permit [1] - The Turkish Finance Minister said that the oil price fluctuations caused by the Iran war may temporarily frustrate the government's inflation - reduction plan. Energy cost increases are affecting all areas of the Turkish economy, which may weaken the monetary policy used to suppress consumer demand, stabilize the lira exchange rate, and rebuild investor confidence [1] Investment Logic - There have been new changes in the navigation situation of the Strait. Countries are trying to negotiate with Iran through diplomatic means. Recently, relevant ships from India and Pakistan have passed through the Strait. Iran's current strategy seems to be to allow selective passage of ships rather than a complete interruption. However, the overall navigation volume of the Strait is still very low [2] Strategy - Due to the high volatility of oil prices in the short - term affected by geopolitical situations, it is recommended to use options to hedge risks when participating in the crude oil market [3]