铅价偏低，下游逢低接货

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is rated as cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is in a weak and volatile state. On the supply side, the resumption of production of primary lead is advancing, the production of secondary lead is cut due to losses, and the arrival of imported lead is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of battery production is rising, but the terminal consumption recovery is weak, and the social inventory continues to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impact suppress the lead price, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of the price stop - falling. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 17, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $49.25 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,425 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,450 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 17, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,450 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 285 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 67,847 lots, a decrease of 6,165 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 51,162 lots, a decrease of 14,887 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,320 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. [2] Inventory - On March 17, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 17, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, an increase of 75 tons compared with the previous trading day. [2] Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips and conduct sell - hedging in the range from below 16,500 yuan/ton to close to 16,850 yuan/ton. If it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is de - stocking recently, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [3]