西南期货早间评论-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, and different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [6]. - For different commodities, there are different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be bullish, some bearish, and some in a state of shock [43][44][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.13%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - Open Market Operations: On March 17, the central bank carried out 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.5 billion yuan [5]. - Policy: The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and focus on seven major tasks [5]. - Outlook: There is still some pressure in the future market, and caution is recommended [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.71%, 0.30%, - 2.05%, and - 2.02% respectively [8]. - Economic Data: From January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.1% year - on - year [8]. - Outlook: The market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell by 0.19%, and the silver main contract rose by 0.03% [10]. - Driving Factors: The complex global trade and financial environment and the actions of central banks support the value of precious metals. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase [10]. - Outlook: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - Supply and Demand: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [12]. - Outlook: The price may rebound, but the space may be limited. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage positions [13]. 3.5 Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder were reported [14]. - Supply and Demand: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand may increase, and the supply has increased in the first two months of this year. The inventory is at a high level [14]. - Outlook: The demand may have a limited positive effect. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage positions [15]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated [15]. - Supply and Demand: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand may increase [15]. - Outlook: The futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions and manage positions [16]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose by 0.84%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose by 0.51% [17]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak, with an overall surplus pressure [17][18]. - Outlook: After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider the opportunity of closing long positions [18]. 3.8 Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [19]. - Market News: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. The Iran - Ukraine situation is tense [19]. - Outlook: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The war between the US and Iran is accelerating, and the global crude oil supply shortage looms. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [20][21]. 3.9 Polyolefins - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend [21]. - Supply and Demand: In the short term, the contraction trend is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate has decreased. In the long term, the import volume may decrease in April, but new production capacity plans are intensive. The demand shows the characteristics of "increasing start - up but cautious procurement" [21]. - Outlook: Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long [22]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell by 1.62% [23]. - Supply and Demand: The cost of synthetic rubber has increased due to the Middle East conflict. Some devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance. The supply is high - load operation, and the demand is in the recovery stage but affected by the Middle East conflict. The inventory has changed from accumulation to depletion [23][24]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [25]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell by 0.21%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose by 0.30% [26]. - Supply and Demand: The cost of synthetic rubber has increased, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in the low - production season, and the demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. The inventory is still accumulating, but the accumulation rate may slow down [26]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock, supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short term, and the inventory depletion and demand recovery in the medium term need to be concerned [26]. 3.12 PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose by 0.73% [27]. - Supply and Demand: The cost is strongly supported in the short term, and the price is in a strong - side shock. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, the demand is gradually starting in spring but at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating [27][28]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. 3.13 Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell by 1.73% [30]. - Supply and Demand: The cost is supported in the short term, but there are still policy regulation and production capacity release pressures. The supply is stable, the demand is concentrated, and the inventory is decreasing [30]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [31]. 3.14 PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell by 1.9% [32]. - Supply and Demand: The PX load has decreased, the supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed [32]. - Outlook: PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. The price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to oil price changes and the situation [32]. 3.15 PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell by 1.26% [33]. - Supply and Demand: The PTA processing fee has adjusted, the supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The cost is affected by the Middle East conflict [33]. - Outlook: The PTA price is still anchored to the cost. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to the Iran - US conflict and oil price changes [33]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell by 1.27% [34]. - Supply and Demand: The overall开工 load has decreased, the import is expected to decrease, and the inventory has a de - stocking expectation. The demand is increasing [34]. - Outlook: The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may fluctuate greatly. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring - maintenance rhythm [34]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell by 0.93% [35]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is gradually increasing, the terminal demand is recovering, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation [35]. - Outlook: The short - fiber still trades based on the cost logic. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [35]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell by 1.13% [36]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is expected to shrink, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the cost is supported [36]. - Outlook: It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [36]. 3.19 Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% [37]. - Supply and Demand: The production is stable, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. The export advantage has decreased [37]. - Outlook: There is no significant support signal in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment fluctuates [37]. 3.20 Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% [38]. - Supply and Demand: The production line is shrinking, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [38]. - Outlook: The fundamentals support is limited, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the position should be controlled. Pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [38]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.59% [39]. - Supply and Demand: The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the price has different trends in different regions. The long - term blockade of the Strait may affect the production of overseas chlorine - alkali equipment and increase China's export advantage [39][40]. - Outlook: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [40]. 3.22 Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60% [41]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic production will decrease due to maintenance, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [41]. - Outlook: The price of softwood pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of hardwood pulp is relatively stable. The downstream demand recovers slowly [42]. 3.23 Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose by 0.39% to 155320 yuan/ton [43]. - Supply and Demand: The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [43]. - Outlook: The price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of relevant events [43]. 3.24 Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% [44]. - Supply and Demand: The macro - level pressure is significant, the supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand has a certain support [44][45]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a weak - side shock [46]. 3.25 Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%, and the alumina main contract rose by 1.59% [47]. - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure of alumina is high, the cost is supported, the supply in the Middle East is tightened, and the domestic demand is recovering [47]. - Outlook: It is expected to run strongly [48]. 3.26 Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% [49]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is increasing, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the inventory is increasing [49][50]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a pressured shock [51]. 3.27 Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16670 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% [52]. - Supply and Demand: The production of primary lead is increasing, the recovery of secondary lead is slow, the demand is affected by geopolitical risks, and the inventory is increasing [52]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a pressured adjustment [53]. 3.28 Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell by 2.34% to 370920 yuan/ton [54]. - Supply and Demand: The supply tightness has eased, the demand has a complex picture, and the inventory is decreasing [54]. - Outlook: The price has support below, but the short - term commodity price may fluctuate greatly. Pay attention to risk control [54]. 3.29 Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell by 0.95% to 135850 yuan/ton [55]. - Supply and Demand: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, the cost is rising, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [55]. - Outlook: The primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Pay attention to relevant policies and macro - events [55]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell by 0.42%, and the soybean oil main contract fell by 0.78% [56]. - Supply and Demand: The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, the oil factory's soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal has different trends [56]. - Outlook: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.31 Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil fell by more than 1%, ending a four - day rise [58]. - **