房地产行业周报：楼市政策托底与市场转暖并行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is experiencing a recovery in first-tier cities, while third-tier cities remain sluggish. The overall performance of the real estate sector in 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, signaling a narrowing of price declines and the emergence of structural opportunities rather than a complete market reversal. Historical data from the US, Japan, and Hong Kong suggest that stock prices may stabilize approximately 4-6 months before housing prices, leading to a positive outlook for real estate stocks in the second half of the year, with a focus on China Resources Land [4] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 161.83 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 1,373.51 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 101.19 million square meters, down 41% year-on-year but up 14% month-on-month. Specifically, first-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 26.56 million square meters, down 47% year-on-year but up 36.5% month-on-month [5][13] Second-hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the past week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 237.88 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,016.41 million square meters, down 7.1% year-on-year. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 142.67 million square meters, down 43.3% year-on-year but up 17.5% month-on-month [6][18] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 31 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 16 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land transactions was 8,348 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 8.21%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.11 percentage points [26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.53%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.19%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.72 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 2.08%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 1.06 percentage points [29][31]