工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026年3月18日）-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 17, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,560 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.72%, and the open interest increased by 4,057 lots to 241,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,313 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 240 yuan/ton. The production resumption of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was hindered, which was structurally offset by a small amount of production resumption in the southwest. The increase in petroleum coke raw materials and the grid electricity price in Xinjiang provided cost support. Downstream demand for essential stocks was sufficient, but the willingness for incremental stocking was insufficient. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price stabilized at the bottom [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 41,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.9%, and the open interest decreased by 549 lots to 34,098 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon from Baichuan dropped to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also dropped to 45,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 3,830 yuan/ton. The actual transactions of polysilicon continued to move towards lower prices. Some large factories have plans to start production in March, ending the supply contraction. The newly added inventory was continuously transferred to warehouse receipts to relieve the pressure of factory inventory backlog. The downstream silicon wafer procurement willingness was low, and polysilicon was expected to fluctuate and adjust at the bottom in the short term. The market was waiting for the specific policy signals of anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry after the Two Sessions to trigger the release of bullish sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices showed a weak - fluctuating trend on March 17. The production resumption situation in different regions and cost factors affected the market. Downstream demand was relatively stable in terms of essential stocks but lacked incremental demand [2]. - Polysilicon futures and spot prices also declined slightly. The supply situation was changing, and the market was waiting for policy signals [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 8,560 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained stable. The spot premium expanded to 240 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,976, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 109,880 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 15,300 tons to 452,650 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 41,670 yuan/ton. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon dropped by 500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 3,830 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 780 to 9,910, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 320,700 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 3,000 tons to 357,000 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 14,300 yuan/ton. The prices of other organic silicon products such as raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices: Charts showed the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7][9][10][11][12]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts presented the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules [14][15][16][17][18][19]. - Inventory: Charts displayed the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory and inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [20][21][23][24]. - Cost and Profit: Charts showed the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [26][27][28][29][31][32]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal and new energy industries, and have won many industry awards and received media interviews [34][35].