光大期货能化商品日报（2026年3月18日）-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, with most showing a volatile trend. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors are the main drivers of price fluctuations [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, prices rose. WTI April contract closed up $2.71 to $96.21/barrel (2.9% increase), Brent May contract closed up $3.21 to $103.42/barrel (3.2% increase), and SC2605 closed at 764.9 yuan/barrel, up 20.2 yuan/barrel (2.74% increase). Due to attacks on Fujeirah Port and geopolitical conflicts, prices are in a wide - range volatile state [1] - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2605) fell 0.4% to 4771 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2605) rose 0.09% to 5641 yuan/ton. Supply shortages in Singapore and potential strong demand from domestic refineries will support the high - sulfur fuel oil market. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened, and short - term cracking spreads are expected to remain high [2] - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main contract (BU2604) rose 2.26% to 4426 yuan/ton. The April asphalt production plan of local refineries is expected to decrease significantly. Supply is expected to be tight, while demand in northern regions is expected to increase in April, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [2][3] - Polyester: TA605 closed down 0.92% at 6918 yuan/ton, EG2605 closed down 1.45% at 4826 yuan/ton. The production cuts of domestic and overseas suppliers, high costs, and weak downstream demand lead to high - level wide - range volatility of polyester prices. If the import of ethylene glycol recovers, it is expected to decline slightly [3] - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU2605), 20 - number rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) all fell. Butadiene rubber prices will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and crude oil prices, and natural rubber faces the dual pressure of increased supply and decreased demand, with their trends likely to further diverge [3][5] - Methanol: The inventory is expected to decline, and the profit recovery of MTO devices may increase the refineries' willingness to resume production. The unclear situation in Iran may cause significant market fluctuations [5] - Polyolefins: The upstream device maintenance plan increases, and the downstream demand is released in spring. The market is in a de - stocking state, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, but the profit of the calcium - carbide method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, demand will gradually recover, and prices are expected to maintain wide - range volatility [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on March 17, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] 3.3 Market News - Fujeirah Port was attacked, causing a fire and halting the oil loading work of ADNOC. The port usually transports over 1 million barrels of Murban crude oil per day, and its production capacity has decreased [9] - The US government plans to further relax sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to increase crude oil production and ease the global energy supply shortage [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., to show the price trends over the years [11][12][13] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [29][30][33] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It presents the spread charts of different contracts of multiple energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc., to show the price differences between different contract periods [42][43][44] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It shows the spread or ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., to reflect the price relationships between different varieties [59][60][61] - 4.5 Production Profits: It presents the production profit or processing fee charts of multiple energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, etc., to show the profitability of different products [69][70][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director of energy and chemicals, and several analysts, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [74][75][76]