现货交投清淡，铜价暂时维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, domestic copper inventories have increased since last week due to high copper prices and spreads, leading to cautious downstream purchasing. Meanwhile, the TC of the mining end has continued to decline to -$60/ton, intensifying the raw material shortage. The refined copper import window has opened, leading to a reduction in bonded area inventories; the narrowing price difference between scrap copper and refined copper has suppressed its economic viability, but the demand for taxed raw materials has increased; the operating rates of copper processing sectors have generally rebounded, with a significant increase in orders for refined copper rods, and improvements in the prosperity of enameled wires and brass rods; terminal orders in the power and new energy sectors are strongly supportive, while the construction sector remains weak. As downstream enterprises resume work and copper prices fluctuate and decline, purchasing enthusiasm may recover. Therefore, it is still recommended to conduct buy-hedging on dips between RMB 99,200/ton and RMB 101,000/ton. If the price falls below RMB 99,200/ton, the hedging intensity can be increased [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 17, 2026, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was RMB 100,020/ton, and the closing price was RMB 99,340/ton, a -0.38% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The opening price of the main SHFE copper contract in the night session was RMB 99,120/ton, and the closing price was RMB 99,140/ton, a 0.20% decrease from the afternoon closing [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the SHFE copper 2604 contract rose and then fell in the early trading yesterday, closing at RMB 100,130/ton. Spot market trading was light, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the transaction volume remained poor even after holders slightly lowered their quotes. The premium/discount was weaker than yesterday. The narrowing of the inter-month spread suppressed the willingness to deliver to the warehouse, and high inventories exerted pressure. The import window was slightly opened, increasing the expectation of subsequent inflows of overseas supplies. It is expected that the premium/discount will continue to be under pressure in the short term [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary - Geopolitically, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, rejected the mediation proposal, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian denied any new contact with US Presidential Envoy Witkoff. Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Efi Devlin said that the Israeli army would "hunt down" Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. In addition, Iranian President Pezeshkian issued an official statement mourning the death of the Secretary of the National Supreme Security Council and former Speaker Ali Larijani in a recent terrorist attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran confirmed the death of Basij militia leader Qolamreza Soleimani. Reports said that Iran had designated multiple replacement candidates for key national positions. Overall, the geopolitical situation has not improved, and the market is still in a narrative of tightening liquidity [3] 3.3 Mining End - Botswana Minerals, a mineral exploration and project development company, announced its exploration progress for the six months ending December 31, 2025. During this period, it obtained eight copper-focused exploration licenses in northwestern Botswana, covering an area of approximately 7,000 square kilometers. These licenses were obtained through the company's use of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze one of Botswana's largest private exploration databases, which is a direct implementation of the AI plan proposed in its 2025 annual report. The relevant details were further explained in the company's report in January this year. Botswana said that the granting of these eight copper exploration licenses was the first concrete result of its broader strategic adjustment, with a license validity period until December 31, 2028, giving it a considerable scale in this increasingly active copper-producing area. Currently, the company has begun planning close-range geophysical and geochemical surveys to optimize AI-generated targets into drillable exploration points. At the same time, the company is in talks with potential joint venture (JV) partners, reflecting the growing interest in copper and energy transition metals in stable African jurisdictions [4] - Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto announced on Monday that it had obtained the control rights for the Resolution copper mine in Arizona. The project is expected to become one of the largest key mineral (copper) supply sources in the United States but has been opposed by Native Americans for more than 20 years. The acquisition of the control rights marks the likely end of a long and complex legal battle. As a core condition for obtaining the control rights of the mining area, Rio Tinto transferred 5,400 acres (approximately 8.4 square miles) of land in Arizona to the US Forest Service in exchange for the use rights of a 2,400-acre mining area. The mining area contains more than 40 billion pounds (approximately 18.1 million tons) of copper. The Resolution copper mine is one of the largest undeveloped copper mine projects in the world, with an estimated copper resource of 1.97 billion tons and an average grade of 1.54%. As of now, the San Carlos Apache Tribe and its lawyers have not responded to this matter [4] 3.4 Smelting and Import - On March 13, the Australian Workers' Union (AWU) said that workers at Glencore's Townsville copper refinery in North Queensland went on strike after nearly a year of negotiations failed to resolve the dispute over wage increases and working conditions. Union members stopped work at the refinery for four hours and then resumed operations. AWU Northern Secretary Jim Wilson said, "If Glencore has no intention of improving its offer, the strike action will continue." He added that the union currently does not plan to take further actions. In response to the strike, Glencore reiterated in an email reply to Reuters that the company remains committed to reaching an agreement with its employees. At the same time, Glencore said that the AWU's political showmanship may damage the constructive cooperative relationship previously established with the negotiators. The refinery has an annual production capacity of up to 300,000 tons of 99.995% pure copper cathodes [5] 3.5 Consumption - On March 16, the General Office of the Anhui Provincial People's Government issued a notice and printed the "List of Key Projects in Anhui Province in 2026," totaling 1,806 projects, including 488 Class A projects and 1,318 Class B projects. Among them, there are four copper-related projects, specifically: the New Tai 500,000-ton copper-based new materials project in Dangtu County; the Guangde Hengtong 60,000-ton new energy copper-based new materials project; the Tongling Nonferrous Green and Intelligent Copper-based New Materials project; and the Ningguo JINGANGUOJI 4 million-square-meter high-grade copper-clad laminate project [5] 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 330,375 tons compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,291 tons to 324,289 tons compared with the previous trading day. On March 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 547,300 tons, a decrease of 26,600 tons compared with the previous week [6]