2026年2月债市托管数据点评：上清所托管量环比减少，债市整体杠杆率下降

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market decreased in February 2026, and it is expected that the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will be 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [8]. - The economic recovery in early 2026, combined with possible loose credit and fiscal policies, will accelerate the cyclical upturn. If there are loose monetary policies, bond yields may decline briefly and then rise. Inflation is expected to pick up, and attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month increase in PPI can remain positive. If inflation rises month - on - month, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and short - term bond yields will also start to rise. Real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Bond Custody - The total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) in February 2026 was 180.35 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.038335 trillion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded. The custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House decreased by 215.928 billion yuan, and the decrease was more than that in January. The custody volume of CCDC increased by 1.254263 trillion yuan, and the month - on - month increase continued to rise [4][5]. Bond Types - In Shanghai Clearing House, credit bonds contributed the main increase in February, with a net monthly increase of 16.183 billion yuan; corporate credit - related bonds increased by 38.683 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds decreased by 7 billion yuan; negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased by 259.02 billion yuan. In CCDC, local government bonds contributed the main increase, with a net monthly increase of 999.629 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds increased by 1.294138 trillion yuan; credit bonds decreased by 39.875 billion yuan. Overall, interest - rate bonds contributed the main increase. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 125.51 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.287138 trillion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 34.12 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 19.446 billion yuan; the custody volume of NCDs was 18.77 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 259.02 billion yuan [6]. Institutions - In Shanghai Clearing House, policy banks and deposit - taking financial institutions increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 7.23 billion yuan and 126.445 billion yuan respectively. Insurance, securities, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net increases, which were - 31.21 billion yuan, - 19.822 billion yuan, - 216.392 billion yuan, and - 75.992 billion yuan respectively. In CCDC, commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings, with a net monthly increase of 693.31 billion yuan. The custody volume of rural credit cooperatives decreased by 166.56 billion yuan. Overall, commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 96.35 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 800.668 billion yuan; the custody volume of securities companies was 3.23 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 9.27 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 47.98 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 171.878 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.32 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 30.372 billion yuan [7]. Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market in February was 106.82%, a month - on - month decrease. By institution, the leverage ratios of commercial banks, non - bank institutions, and securities companies all decreased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points; among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies was 142.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96 percentage points [8].