2026年1-2月经济数据点评：开年数据有所改善，但整体仍偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data at the beginning of 2026 improved, but the overall situation remained weak. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales from January to February was +2.8%, up 1.9 percentage points from December 2025 but down 0.89 percentage points from the whole year of 2025. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was +1.8%, up 5.6 percentage points from the whole year of 2025. The year-on-year decline of real estate development investment narrowed but remained in a large negative growth range, and real estate sales accelerated their decline, which might suppress post-cycle consumption such as furniture and home appliances. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was +6.3%, 1.1 percentage points faster than that in December 2025. Under the interweaving of internal and external factors, market expectations were frequently disturbed, and residents' consumption willingness and enterprises' investment confidence still needed to be restored. The supply pressure of the bond market was better than expected, and there might be certain pressure on economic growth. The risk of long-term bonds was low, and the yield was expected to decline. It was recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of long-duration bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Social Retail Sales - The growth rate of social retail sales rebounded but remained under pressure. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was +2.8%, 1.9 percentage points faster than that in December 2025, which might be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. The cumulative growth rate from January to February decreased by 0.89 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2025. The retail sales of grain, oil, food, and clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles above the quota increased by 10.2% and 10.4% respectively. The retail sales of communication equipment and household appliances and audio-visual equipment above the quota increased by 17.8% and 3.3% respectively. In the future, due to the high year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in the first half of 2025 and the decline in the support of consumption policies in 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in the first half of 2026 might be under pressure [2]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment turned from decline to growth, with infrastructure leading the recovery and real estate still under pressure. The pressure of fixed asset investment was alleviated stage by stage. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate ended four consecutive months of negative growth and turned from decline to growth from January to February. The year-on-year decline of real estate development investment narrowed but remained in a deep negative growth range. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was +1.8%, up 5.6 percentage points from the whole year of 2025, mainly driven by strong infrastructure investment (contributing about 3 percentage points) and accelerated growth of manufacturing investment (pulling 0.8 percentage points), while the drag effect of real estate investment weakened [2]. Real Estate - Real estate sales accelerated their decline, and the decline of private investment narrowed but remained under pressure. From January to February, the sales area of new commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, and the sales volume was 818.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. The sales area and volume of residential housing decreased by 15.9% and 21.8% respectively, which might suppress post-cycle consumption such as furniture and home appliances. The "sales - investment" negative feedback mechanism of real estate might still continue. At the end of February, the unsold area of commercial housing was 799.98 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, indicating potential inventory pressure. From January to February, private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, 3.8 percentage points narrower than that in the whole year of 2025, ending the trend of expanding negative growth for six consecutive months but still not turning positive [2]. Industrial Added Value - The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size accelerated, and the leading role of new kinetic energy increased. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was +6.3%, reaching a recent high, 1.1 percentage points faster than that in December 2025. The industrial production accelerated significantly and continued to recover. Among the three major categories, the mining industry, manufacturing industry, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.1%, 6.6%, and 4.7% respectively year-on-year, 0.7, 0.9, and 3.9 percentage points higher than that in December 2025. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above designated size increased by 13.1% and 9.3% respectively year-on-year, faster than the overall industrial added value above designated size. With the gradual improvement of demand and the continuous release of policy effects, the industrial economy was expected to maintain a stable growth trend [2][3]. Economic Growth - Economic growth might still face certain pressure. In January - February 2026, China's foreign trade achieved a "good start", but domestic demand remained under pressure. The support of consumption policies declined, the growth rate of social retail sales rebounded but was overall weak, real estate sales accelerated their decline, and private investment remained in the negative growth range, which might restrict economic recovery. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, the market lowered the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and overseas trade frictions disturbed, so the resilience of future foreign trade growth needed to be observed. In terms of prices, in February 2026, the year-on-year increase of CPI rose significantly to 1.3% (a three - year high), and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to -0.9%, with five consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth. The war between the US and Iran might further narrow the decline [3]. Bond Investment - The adjustment of long-term bonds might be an opportunity, and it was recommended to seize the band operation opportunities. Recently, the RMB appreciated significantly, which was beneficial to the Chinese bond market. Currently, the long-term bond positions of trading desks were still small, and the year-on-year recovery of PPI was a general market expectation, so the risk of long-term bonds might be low. The deposit interest rate was low, and insurance premiums were expected to grow rapidly. In March, the allocation of ultra-long bonds by insurance funds might increase, and the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond was expected to fall below 2.20%. It was expected that the low point of the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the first quarter might reach 1.75%, and the low point in the second quarter was expected to reach 1.70%. It was expected that the 10-year Treasury bond yield in 2026 would fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. Currently, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of old 30Y Treasury bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and long-duration sinking capital bonds [3].