海外加息预期再起，关注美联储利率决议

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas interest rate hike expectations have resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision [2] - The tail - risk of the Iran situation has increased significantly, affecting the crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and there is a risk of further price increases [2] - During the two sessions in China, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the two sessions. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have leading gains and win - rates [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3] - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The situation has a significant impact on energy and production facilities in the Middle East, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is severely blocked [2] - The main affected varieties are concentrated in crude oil, LPG, and the shipping sector. Rising oil prices have driven the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [2] - The new Iranian supreme leader has stated that he will not give up revenge and will continue strategic means such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US has threatened NATO allies to assist in the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but allies have a cold response [2] - The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners. The US judge has rejected the Trump administration's subpoena against Powell [2] - The Fed will announce its March interest rate decision at 02:00 on March 19, Beijing time [2] - The 2026 government work report mentioned an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2] - During the two sessions, the A - share index has a "sell - the - fact" performance, with a negative average increase or decrease, but the average probability of increase is close to 50%. After the two sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts. There is only one interest rate cut priced in for the year [2] - China's February official manufacturing PMI is 49, and non - manufacturing PMI is 49.5. February exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year [2] - China's January - February social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.2% [2] - China's January - February real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year. The decline in housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to narrow in February [2] - Sino - US economic and trade teams started consultations in Paris on March 15 [2] Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices in the previous week were inversely correlated [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, more than double the 2022 level. There is still a gap in the supply even if the release speed is considered [3] - Rising oil prices have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol. The oilseed sector in agricultural products is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - For the black commodity sector, attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4] Important News - Iran's new supreme leader has rejected the proposal to "ease tensions or achieve peace" with the US and stated that the US and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation [6] - Iran's highest national security council secretary Ali Larijani has issued a hand - written condolence message [6] - The White House national economic council director said that if necessary, the coordinated release of oil reserves can be increased, and the Iran conflict will end in the short term. Futures show that oil prices will return to more than $50 per barrel later this year [6] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Larijani has been killed [6]