贵金属数据日报-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical games and oil price changes may continue to affect precious metal prices, with the trend likely to remain range - bound. The focus should be on Middle - East geopolitical developments, oil price trends, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week. The "oil price increase + rising inflation expectations + weakening rate - cut expectations" trading narrative may be gradually digested by the market. Given high global geopolitical uncertainty, the room for a significant decline in precious metal prices is relatively limited. In the long - term, with the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the center of precious metal prices still has room to rise. Long - term strategies can consider gradually allocating long positions on dips recently [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - Spot and Futures Prices: On March 17, 2026, London gold spot was at $5011.82/ounce, London silver spot at $80.73/ounce, COMEX gold at $5015.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $80.89/ounce, AU2604 at 1116.20 yuan/gram, AG2604 at 20371.00 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 1114.70 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 20238.00 yuan/kg. Compared with March 16, the price of London silver spot rose 0.7%, COMEX silver rose 0.8%, AU2604 fell 0.2%, and AU (T + D) fell 0.2% [3] - Price Spreads and Ratios: On March 17, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.5 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 133 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 3.51 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 10 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 54.79, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 62.01. Compared with March 16, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 11.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active spread fell 16.9%, the gold internal - external spread fell 11.5%, and the silver internal - external spread fell 90.0% [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1070.71 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15355.94899 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 33306 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts. Compared with March 13, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.08%, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.67%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 0.79%, and the non - commercial short positions of COMEX gold fell 2.41% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 17, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105315.00 kg, and SHFE silver inventory was 353763.00 kg. On March 16, COMEX gold inventory was 32396398 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 339582263 troy ounces. Compared with March 16, SHFE gold inventory fell 0.10%, and SHFE silver inventory rose 6.97%. Compared with March 13, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.63% [3] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On March 17, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 16, the US dollar index was 99.80, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.68%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 23.51, the S&P 500 was 6699.38, and NYMEX crude oil was 94.22. Compared with March 16, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 0.14%. Compared with March 13, the US dollar index fell 0.70%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.34%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.17%, the VIX fell 13.53%, the S&P 500 rose 1.01%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 5.13% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.79% to 1116.2 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.19% to 20308 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US - Iran geopolitical conflict shows no sign of easing. High oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations, which is negative for precious metal prices. However, as ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz and US officials soothe the market, the rise in oil prices has slowed, weakening inflation concerns, the US dollar index has fallen, and the decline in precious metal prices has slowed, turning into a volatile trend [4]