2026年公募REITs市场3月半月报：回调加剧、换手探底，年报季聚焦分红窗口-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors such as the diversion of commercial real - estate REITs, concerns about the accelerated pace of primary supply, and the rise in long - term bond interest rates have led to an intensified correction in the REITs market. The liquidity is running at a low level, but the decline has narrowed. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.7% in the first half of March 2026, with the decline widening compared to the same period last month [4]. - The dividend yield of REITs has caught up with that of dividend - paying stocks. The valuation of equity - type REITs has decreased, while that of concession - type REITs has increased. The internal rate of return (IRR) of both types has increased compared to the end of February [4]. - Two infrastructure REITs projects have been registered and are awaiting issuance. One new commercial real - estate REIT has been reported, and the fundraising scale of new projects has decreased. The market is expected to see an increase in the enthusiasm for offline subscriptions with the issuance of the first project of the year and the progress of commercial real - estate projects [4]. - Annual reports will be released one after another. It is recommended to pay attention to the dividend window in April. After the release of the annual reports, the concentrated dividend season of the year will follow [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Correction Amplifies, Liquidity Decline at Low Level Narrows - Market Performance: In the first half of March 2026, the equity market was weak, with the 300 Return Index falling 0.8% and only the CSI Dividend Total Return Index rising 1.5%. The 10 - year Treasury yield continued to rise, reaching 1.83%. Affected by multiple factors, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.7%, with the decline widening compared to February [10]. - Sector Performance: In the first half of March 2026, various types of assets generally corrected, with only the energy sector rising slightly. Equity - type assets had a large decline, with the warehousing and logistics, IDC, and rental - housing sectors falling more than 3%. Concession - type sectors were relatively resistant to decline, and the energy sector rose 0.58% [11][16]. - Individual Bond Performance: The proportion of rising and falling individual REITs was 18% and 82% respectively. The National Electric Power Investment New Energy REIT led the rise (+2.58%), while the JD Warehouse REIT led the decline (-10.95%) [20]. - Turnover Rate: In the first half of March 2026, the average daily turnover rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs was 0.37%, a slight narrowing of 0.01 percentage points compared to February. The selling pressure of rental - housing assets increased, the trading activity of industrial park and consumer assets continued to cool, and the turnover rate of IDC assets showed an upward trend [26]. 3.2 Dividend Yield Catches Up with Dividend - Paying Stocks, Equity Valuation Decreases while Concession Valuation Increases - Dividend Yield: As of March 16, 2026, the dividend yield (TTM) of equity - type REITs was 4.67% (at the 64th percentile), and that of concession - type REITs was 8.46% (at the 73rd percentile). The overall dividend yield of equity - type REITs increased by 0.08 percentage points compared to the end of February, and the dividend yield of consumer REITs reached the 90th percentile of the historical high [31]. - Comparison with Other Assets: The spread between the dividend yield of equity - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 2.83% (at the 72nd percentile of history), widening by 0.07 percentage points compared to the end of February. The spread between the dividend yield of equity - type REITs and the CSI Dividend yield was 0.00% (at the 78th percentile of history), widening by 0.27 percentage points compared to the end of February, and the dividend yields of the two were equal [36]. - Valuation: The latest P/NAV of equity - type REITs was 1.23X, at the 66th percentile of history, and the valuation decreased compared to the end of February. The latest P/FFO of concession - type REITs was 13.45X, at the 55th percentile of history, and the valuation increased compared to the end of February [46]. - IRR: The latest IRR of equity - type REITs was 4.2%, at the 42nd percentile of history; the latest IRR of concession - type REITs was 5.2%, at the 32nd percentile of history. The IRRs of both types increased compared to the previous period [51]. 3.3 Two Projects Registered and Awaiting Issuance, New Commercial Fundraising Amount Decreases - Market Status: As of March 16, 2026, there were 79 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 222.9 billion yuan. There have been no new REITs issued in the market since 2026 [53]. - Subscription Yield: Only the Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT was listed in 2026. The offline cash subscription yields for 10 million yuan, 30 million yuan, and 100 million yuan were 0.83 million yuan, 2.48 million yuan, and 8.27 million yuan respectively, and the cumulative offline subscription yield for cash below 100 million yuan was 0.08% [59]. - Infrastructure REITs: As of March 16, there were 15 infrastructure REITs projects that had been accepted but not issued. The Dongfanghong Tunnel Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Expressway REIT (initial offering) and the CICC Xiamen Anju REIT (expansion) had been registered and approved. Two projects, Guojin Jize New Energy REIT and Jianxin Tianjin Lingang Development REIT, were newly accepted [63]. - Commercial Real - Estate REITs: As of March 16, there were 15 commercial real - estate REITs projects under review. Three new projects were accepted, and five projects received inquiry letters from the exchange. The fundraising scale of newly accepted projects has decreased, concentrating in the range of 1 - 2 billion yuan [66]. - Bidding: In the first half of March 2026, there were updates on the bidding progress of 5 public REITs projects, covering multiple fields such as cultural tourism, hotels, and energy [80]. 3.4 Annual Reports to be Released, Recommend Paying Attention to the Dividend Window in April - Annual Report Release: As of now, the 2025 annual reports of China Merchants Shekou Rental Housing REIT and Boshi China Merchants Shekou Industrial Park REIT have been released. The Yinhuashangyuanshui Water Conservancy REIT has not lifted the primary - level emergency response for raw water supply, and the CITIC Construction Investment National Electric Power Investment New Energy REIT carried out factoring financing [88]. - Performance in 2025: From the perspective of distributable amount, the year - on - year growth rates of Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT (+21%) and Fuguo Shouchuang Water Service REIT (+27%) in 2025 were the highest. Attention should be paid to the differences between the annual report and the quarterly summary, such as the large impairment provisions for investment real estate of Jianxin Zhongguancun REIT every year [92]. - Dividend Window: After the release of the annual reports, April will be the concentrated window period for REITs dividend distribution. There are obvious differences in the distributable amount per unit among different asset categories and projects within the same asset [93]. - Block Trades: Since 2026, the activity of block trades in public REITs has cooled down. In the first half of March, there were 61 block trades in the public REITs market, with a total amount of 1.442 billion yuan. Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou REIT had the largest total block - trade amount, and CICC ProLogis REIT had the largest single - transaction amount [98].