日度策略参考-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, styrene, PE, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Macro finance, treasury bonds, copper, aluminum oxide, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, precious metals, platinum and palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, black metals, soda ash, coke, coking coal, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - The Middle East conflict continues to impact the market, causing uncertainty in the global capital market and affecting the prices of various commodities [1] - The stock index is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and is likely to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external inflationary pressures ease and market risk appetite recovers [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand relationships, and policy changes, and most of them are in an oscillating state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating, and long positions can be considered in the medium to long term using the discount advantage of stock index futures, while controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds are oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior of trading desks [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation and the increase in market risk aversion [1] - Aluminum in the non-ferrous sector is a multi-allocation variety due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1] - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the implementation plan is unclear and supply remains in excess [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating due to concerns about short-term zinc ore supply and inflation risks [1] - Nickel prices may oscillate due to supply tightness in Indonesia and macro sentiment fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for low-buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch for low-buying opportunities [1] - Tin prices are affected by the macro environment and are highly volatile in the short term [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term as the Middle East geopolitical situation has not been resolved and oil prices may still affect the precious metals market [1] - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to remain oscillating, and the driving force depends on the clarification of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1] Black Metals - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for the next entry opportunity after taking profits on long basis positions [1] - Iron ore prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost, and are oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon prices are oscillating, with short-term supply and demand remaining weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost providing positive factors [1] - Black metals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, with expectations of supply reduction increasing, and cost support due to rising energy prices [1] - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the short term due to geopolitical conflicts and are expected to be more relaxed in the medium term [1] - Coke prices are oscillating, and the coking profit has been repaired, but the market is highly uncertain and depends on geopolitical changes [1] - Coking coal prices have the same logic as coke [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish due to the tight supply and demand situation in the international market [1] - Soybean oil is expected to rise following the market, and can be considered for short allocation in the oil varieties for hedging [1] - Rapeseed oil is bullish in the short term due to potential positive factors from the US biodiesel policy [1] - Cotton prices are expected to gradually rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area is reduced [1] - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal strong and external weak pattern continuing [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to continue oscillating at a high level, with limited downward space in the short term but facing constraints from alternative supply and policy [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate more and are in an oscillating state, and it is recommended to pay attention to international situation changes and the USDA planting intention report [1] - Pulp futures are oscillating in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term [1] - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and watch [1] - Live pig prices are oscillating as demand support and production capacity need further release [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical factors [1] - Fuel oil prices are affected by the Middle East situation and are oscillating [1] - Asphalt prices are relatively weakly affected in the energy sector, mainly due to the impact of crude oil price transmission [1] - Natural rubber prices are affected by the US-Iran situation, and the prices of BD and BR are rising [1] - BR rubber prices are expected to rise due to factors such as cost support and inventory reduction expectations [1] - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, with tight supply of PX and rapid downstream replenishment [1] - Ethylene glycol prices have risen rapidly due to raw material shortages [1] - Short fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1] - Benzene prices are rising due to multiple supply disturbances and strong market buying [1] - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disturbances and tight spot supply [1] - Urea prices have limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1] - Methanol prices are affected by the Iranian situation, with high domestic production and inventory [1] - PE prices are affected by geopolitical factors and have a weak fundamental situation [1] - PVC prices are expected to be optimistic in the future due to capacity clearance and raw material shortages [1] - LPG prices are showing a divergence between the internal and external markets, with the FEI - PG showing a背离 [1] Other - Container shipping on the European route is affected by the war situation and the re - takeover of the Red Sea by the Houthi armed forces, and the price increase is generally stable [1]