房地产行业2026年春季投资策略：核心城市先行，龙头弹性十足

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the stabilization of housing prices in core cities will determine the stock price inflection points and elasticity of leading real estate companies [3][4] - The report draws parallels with Japan and the United States, indicating that leading companies' stock prices follow the trend of core city housing prices rather than national averages, with significant historical price increases observed in Japan and the U.S. during recovery periods [3][5][8] - The report suggests that the leading stabilization in core cities is driven by population inflow, which improves residents' balance sheets, as seen in cities like Tokyo, San Francisco, and Hong Kong [3][20] Group 2 - The mid-term analysis indicates that the real estate industry has undergone deep adjustments in both volume and price, suggesting that the bottom may be approaching, necessitating policy interventions [3][4] - The report highlights that front-end indicators in the real estate sector have seen cumulative declines of 60-80%, with construction down by 75%, surpassing average declines in the U.S., Japan, and Germany [3][51][54] - The report notes that the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices has reached 41%, significantly exceeding the average decline of 34% observed in 42 countries during past crises [3][60][69] Group 3 - The policy judgment section indicates a shift towards more proactive policies, as evidenced by the publication of supportive measures and the Shanghai "Seven Measures," which aim to stabilize the real estate market [3][4] - The report mentions that various financing policies have emerged, including the extension of loans for "white list" projects and the gradual retreat of the "three red lines" policy, indicating a more favorable financing environment for real estate [3][4] - The report anticipates that policies supporting both supply and demand will further strengthen, including mortgage interest subsidies and relaxation of purchase restrictions [3][4] Group 4 - The industry judgment predicts that core cities in China will lead the stabilization of housing prices, with quality enterprises being the first to benefit from this trend [3][4] - The report notes that from 2025, the trajectory of residents' assets and liabilities is expected to stabilize, which may end the trend of declining balance sheets [3][10] - The report draws on experiences from Tokyo and San Francisco, suggesting that cities like Shanghai possess the necessary conditions for leading price stabilization [3][4] Group 5 - The investment analysis opinion maintains a "positive" rating, asserting that leading companies in core cities will exhibit significant elasticity as the industry approaches a fundamental bottom [3][4] - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, indicating that the sector is becoming increasingly attractive due to historical low valuations [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, combined with supportive policies, create a favorable environment for recovery in the real estate sector [3][4]