鸡蛋日报-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Due to the good profit situation in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, leading to a slowdown in overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg price performance, the overall de - stocking has weakened. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3659, down 11 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3400, up 18; JD09 closed at 3806, down 28. The 01 - 05 spread was 259, down 29; the 05 - 09 spread was - 406, up 46; the 09 - 01 spread was 147, down 17. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans had minor changes [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.35 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][4][8]. - Profit Calculation: The profit per chicken was 4.91 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The average price of corn was 2452 yuan, down 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3384 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Egg Price Trends: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed. Prices in Beijing, Northeast China, Shanxi, and Hebei increased, while those in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei were mostly stable [4]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicks in February was about 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - Chicken Culling: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days; the circulation - link inventory was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days [5][6][7]. 3.3 Trading Logic - The good early - stage profit situation has led to a decline in the enthusiasm for culling and a slowdown in capacity reduction. After the Spring Festival, it is the egg consumption off - season. Although the inventory has alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall de - stocking. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the spot price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas, the feed cost per jin of eggs, the inventory of laying hens, various spreads, basis, egg production profit expectations, and the weekly average profit per jin of fresh eggs. These charts cover data from multiple years, which helps in analyzing the long - term trends and fluctuations of the egg market [12][13][14][17][20][25][27][32]