银河期货农产品日报-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The apple market has a strong fundamental situation with low cold - storage apple inventory and high costs for May contracts. However, the upward momentum of the May contract is limited due to the high previous prices and upcoming position - limit regulations. The market is expected to shift its focus to the new - season apple production as the key growth period approaches, and the new - season apple is likely to have an increased production. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index decreased by 0.15 to 110.41, while the prices of various apple types such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits increased by 0.04 to 7.88 [2]. - Futures Prices: AP01 rose by 8 to 8630, AP05 increased by 3 to 10121, and AP10 increased by 21 to 8786. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 5 to - 1491, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 18 to 1335 [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts decreased, e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 8 to - 630 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Market News: As of March 12, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from the previous week and 24.34 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.6%. The apple market in the producing areas was stable, with good - quality goods in short supply. The sales in the market were okay, and the mainstream prices were stable. The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces also showed different trends [7]. - Trading Logic: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is insufficient. The market will focus on the new - season apple production, and the new - season apple is expected to have an increased production. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. - Trading Strategies: For the single - side trading, it is recommended to exit the May contract and short the October contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 and Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the apple arrival volume in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][14]