棉花、棉纱日报-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding duty quotas for cotton is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets The impact on the domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton in the long - term Recently, due to the decline in crude oil prices, cotton prices have fallen, but the decline is expected to be limited [6] - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed significantly It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and avoid chasing high prices For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is okay, and the supply of medium - and high - count yarns may be tight in the future The overall situation of the all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, with more domestic orders and few foreign orders The market is paying attention to the replenishment situation during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [11] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 205, and 185 respectively The trading volume of CF05 and CF09 increased by 87,881 and 57,726 respectively, while that of CF01 decreased by 2,215 The open interest of CF01 and CF09 increased by 1,166 and 11,085 respectively, while that of CF05 decreased by 56,651 For the CY series, CY01 had no trading volume, and the closing prices of CY05 and CY09 decreased by 180 and 315 respectively [2] - Spot Market: The price of CCIndex3128B increased by 13 to 16,897 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 22,050 yuan/ton The price of Cot A increased by 2.3 to 78.75 cents/pound, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 72 to 22,568 yuan/ton [2] - Price Spreads: In the cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May increased by 55 to 420, the spread between May and September decreased by 20 to - 95, and the spread between September and January decreased by 35 to - 325 In the yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May increased by 180 to - 21,300, the spread between May and September increased by 135 to 65, and the spread between September and January decreased by 315 to 21,235 In the cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 150, CY05 - CF05 increased by 25, and CY09 - CF09 decreased by 130 The 1% tariff - based domestic - foreign cotton price spread decreased by 450 to 2,874, the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton price spread decreased by 87 to - 1,156, and the domestic - foreign yarn price spread decreased by 72 to - 518 [2] 2. Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: On March 17, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton remained unchanged at 0.1566 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to remain stable in the short - term As of February 28, 2026, the CAI's assessment of India's 2025/26 cotton balance sheet shows that production increased by 60,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 170,000 tons, imports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory decreased by 160,000 tons compared with the previous month In 2026, China imported 210,000 tons of cotton in January and 170,000 tons in February, with a cumulative import of 370,000 tons from January to February, a year - on - year increase of 41% [4][5] - Trading Logic: The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding duty quotas for cotton is beneficial to US cotton, and it may also drive up the price of Zhengzhou cotton, but the impact on domestic supply is relatively small The short - term decline in cotton prices is limited due to market support [6] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices for US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] - Cotton Yarn Industry News: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is okay, and the supply of medium - and high - count yarns may be tight in the future The all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, with more domestic orders and few foreign orders The market is waiting for the improvement of foreign orders in April and paying attention to the replenishment situation during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [11] 3. Options - Option Data: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the implied volatilities of CF605 - C - 14600, CF605 - C - 14200, and CF605 - P - 13800 are 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667 for open interest and 0.4688 for trading volume, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased today It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [17][20][24][25]