Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-18 10:03Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly recently, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the general trade warehouse will continue to see a slight reduction in inventory in the short term. - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, with the production schedules of tire companies basically returning to normal, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire companies in some regions still faces resistance due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 17,000, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,105 yuan/ton, down 365 yuan. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 95 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. - Positions: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,883 lots to 127,172 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 427 lots to 61,137 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rubber Prices: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market decreased by 500 yuan; the price of Thailand's RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysia's RMB mixed rubber was 15,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - Synthetic Rubber Prices: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw Material Prices: The market reference price of Thai rubber smoke sheets was 74.3 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 70 baht/kg, up 0.45 baht; the price of Thai rubber glue was 73 baht/kg, up 0.7 baht; the price of Thai cup rubber was 52.95 baht/kg, up 0.85 baht. - Import Volumes: The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, an increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Operating Rates: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, up 4.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, up 3.68 percentage points. - Inventory Days: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 43.91 days, down 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 43.84 days, up 0.74 days. - Output: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.76%, up 1.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.88%, up 0.73 percentage points. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.87%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.86%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Heavy - Truck Sales: In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. - Inventory in Qingdao Port: As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43% to 121,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81% to 556,300 tons. - Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].