Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-18 10:03Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - For the corn market, the international oil price remains high due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, which boosts the international corn market price and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast production area is less than 30%. As the corn price rises, the willingness of growers to sell increases, and the market supply increases. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid replenishment, while deep - processing enterprises' resuming operation supports the purchase price. The rumored release of overdue rice and the adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction policy may suppress corn demand. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For the corn starch market, as the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the industry's operating rate increases, and the supply - side pressure rises. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, downstream demand improves, and the industry inventory slightly decreases. The starch market's upward momentum weakens, and it may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2382 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2721 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 19 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is 1 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1358592 hands, down 26004 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 248048 hands, up 5182 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holdings for corn are - 214100 hands, up 24709 hands; for corn starch, they are - 21117 hands, up 4579 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 78333 hands, and for corn starch are 6255 hands, with no change [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 454.5 cents/bushel, down 0.25 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total holding volume (weekly) is 1723308 contracts, up 105847 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly) are 257781 contracts, up 167722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2455.49 yuan/ton, up 3.14 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2830 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2138.16 yuan/ton, up 53.09 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 65 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 73.49 yuan/ton, up 7.14 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 737 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 19 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine is 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 69.6 tons, down 19.6 tons; at northern ports is 219 tons, up 19 tons [2]. - Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 337.7 tons, down 6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 120.3 tons, down 0.6 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 30.06 days, down 0.19 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 126.86 tons, up 4.91 tons [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 55.61%, up 1.53 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 58.8%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; in Hebei is 141 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton; in Jilin is 5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.65%, down 0.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.28%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 14.28%, down 1.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 14.28%, down 1.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Trump administration has taken emergency action to find alternative fertilizer sources for US farmers before the spring plowing due to the Iran war cutting off key supply channels [2]. - From March 1 to 13, Brazil's corn export volume was 48.4 tons, compared with 87.1 tons in the whole of March 2025 [2]. - The ongoing US - Iran conflict affects the international oil price, which boosts the international corn market price and has a positive impact on the domestic market [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]