瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - L2605 saw a rise followed by a decline, closing at 8431 yuan/ton. The market digested the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on crude oil supply, and with the expected increase in profit and a correction in international oil prices, the plastics market was affected. The supply of PE decreased with some device shutdowns for maintenance, while downstream demand recovered due to the "Golden March" season. LLDPE supply and demand were acceptable, and in the short term, L2605 was expected to fluctuate with international oil prices, with technical attention on the support around 8120 and the resistance around 8895 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 8431 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7928 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8431 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8175 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 789359 lots, down 60458 lots; the open interest was 343958 lots, up 10229 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 503, down 21; the 5 - 9 spread was 256, down 38; the 9 - 1 spread was 247, up 59 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene was 478921 lots, up 12379 lots; the sell order volume was 479568 lots, up 6618 lots; the net buy order volume was - 647 lots, up 5761 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8366.96 yuan/ton, down 3.04 yuan; in East China, it was 8568.6 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan [2] - The basis was - 64.04, up 61.96 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 124.55 US dollars/barrel, down 3.42 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1032 US dollars/ton, down 20.5 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia was 1251 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 82.39%, down 4.52 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 43.37%, up 3.07 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 18%, up 7.83 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 26.81%, up 7.95 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 37.85%, up 0.79 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 30.65%, up 0.78 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene was 50.11%, down 12.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 50.11%, down 12.27 percentage points [2] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's polyethylene production was 68.32 tons, down 5.20% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 82.39%, down 4.52 percentage points [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 5.2% [2] - As of March 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 57.54 tons, up 7.31% from the previous week; as of March 13th, the social inventory of PE was 61.93 tons, down 6.58% from the previous period [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 14.37% to 9306 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 46 yuan/ton to - 1329 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.14% to 6602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1211 yuan/ton to 1446 yuan/ton [2]