瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda supply and demand are in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The market has different views on the export benefits, and the decline of the 05 contract has led to a partial convergence of the basis. In the short term, SH2605 is expected to fluctuate due to news - related disturbances, with the daily K - line focusing on the support near 2300 and the pressure near 2590 [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2442 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the futures holding volume is 204,913 lots, up 361 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is 3039 lots, up 3056 lots; the futures trading volume is 603,191 lots, down 123,738 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 2487 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2442 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 685 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Jiangsu is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2141 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis is - 301 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 227.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 1 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 85.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. From March 7th to 13th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.10% month - on - month to 82.72%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.05% month - on - month to 90.14%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 50.15%. As of March 11th, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. From March 5th to 12th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 205 yuan/ton [3]