瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar price is under pressure on the upper side of the market, and the short - term sugar price has entered an adjustment phase. The 25/26 sugar - pressing season in Guangxi may see the first peak of sugar mill closures this week [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5343 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 387,747 hands, a decrease of 29,190 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,342, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 119,726 hands, an increase of 10,572 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4103 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4031 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5106 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 66 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5310 yuan/ton, and that in Guangxi Nanning is 5420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. Brazil's total sugar exports in a certain month are 222.97 million tons, a decrease of 78 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 302 million tons, and the cumulative import volume is 492 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons, an increase of 66.58 million tons, and in Yunnan is 53.2 million tons. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi is 402.9 million tons, an increase of 208.71 million tons, and in Yunnan is 98.41 million tons, an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 228.74 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 12.81%, a decrease of 2.4%, and that of at - the - money put options is 12.8%, a decrease of 2.42%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.47%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 10.1%, an increase of 0.33% [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of March 15, 2025/26, India's sugar output reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.5%. There are currently 157 sugar mills in operation, compared with 182 in the same period last year. ICE's most actively traded May raw sugar futures rose 0.26 cents or 1.80% to settle at 14.45 cents per pound. Brazil exported 724,280 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of March, with a daily average export volume of 72,400 tons, a 25% decrease compared with the daily average export volume of 96,550 tons in March last year [2]