全球市场周报：地区冲突升级，估值重新定价-20260318

Group 1: Market Overview - Global capital markets entered a high volatility period driven by geopolitical conflicts, energy supply chain disruptions, and macroeconomic data divergence from March 7 to March 13, 2026[1] - The MSCI Global Index fell by 1.79% during this week, with the Nasdaq down 1.26%, S&P 500 down 1.60%, and Dow Jones down 1.99%[13] - European markets continued to decline due to geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations, with major indices like DAX and CAC40 showing declines of 0.61% and 1.03% respectively[16][23] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Impacts - The escalation of conflicts in the Persian Gulf, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to increased energy costs and heightened economic risk premiums in Europe[3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the Middle East conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, with a reduction of at least 10 million barrels per day, nearly 10% of global demand[47] - Emerging markets (excluding China) faced significant differentiation in performance, with India experiencing a 5.52% decline, while Brazil's decline was more moderate at 0.95%[4][16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In Asia, investors should focus on domestic policy beneficiaries amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions[5] - In Europe, a rebalancing between defensive and cyclical sectors is recommended due to the pressures from inflation and geopolitical risks[5] - In emerging markets, it is advised to avoid markets with high external vulnerabilities like India, while selectively investing in markets with internal buffers like Brazil[5]