瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rebounded on March 17, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, settling at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - Affected by the decline of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has given back some of its previous gains, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2] - Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has generally remained in a high - level shock, with increased short - term fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures was 9780 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was 2443 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] - The month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 141 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was 16 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 229,484 lots, down 4185 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 600,206 lots, down 20,858 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 18,729 lots, up 1557 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 145,326 lots, down 7417 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 905, down 220; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 586, down 1675 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures was 729.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 26.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures was 5778 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,351.25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 5388.97 yuan/ton, up 169.65 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.86, up 0.04 [2] - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 590 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 217 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 510 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual global rapeseed output was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed output was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 146 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi region was 0.5 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 28.12%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.84%, down 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.58%, up 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.83%, down 0.08% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 17 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, rebounding from the previous day's decline, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Affected by the increase in South American soybean supply and the decline in US soybean export expectations, US soybeans fell sharply, dragging down the domestic rapeseed meal price [2] - China's cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the distant month [2] - The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited overall impact [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres [2] - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed output in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, boosting the demand expectation of vegetable oil for biodiesel [2] - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in March, while the output increase was limited, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten [2] - The domestic edible oil spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and high prices suppress demand [2] - The future import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding supply pressure in the distant month [2]