天然橡胶日报：震荡偏弱：冠通期货研究报告-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Weakly" for the natural rubber industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Rubber prices are expected to show a weak and oscillating trend due to the expected increase in supply as the rubber tapping season begins, good demand recovery, but high inventory and rising bonded area inventory putting pressure on prices [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 18, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -2.55% [1] 3.2 Supply - Global natural rubber producing areas have normal weather this year. Starting from the Yunnan production area in mid - March, the world will enter a new round of rubber tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and the expectation of new rubber supply growth in the future is rising [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 13, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 77.71%, higher than the historical average for the same period; the operating rate of full - steel tires was 70.22%, also higher than the historical average for the same period. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. However, the intensifying situation in Iran has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to Zhuochuang Information's research data, in the week of March 13, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 139,500 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period, a rise of 4.26%. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 552,600 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67% [4]