有色金属行业周报（2026.3.9-2026.3.15）：工业金属震荡蓄势，能源金属机会渐显-20260318

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the risk of supply disruptions in the electrolytic aluminum sector, particularly with the complete shutdown of Qatar's Qatalum aluminum plant due to gas supply issues and the declaration of force majeure by Bahrain's Alba Aluminum [1] - The U.S. CPI for February increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.5%, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures, although rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions may exacerbate living cost pressures for U.S. residents [2] - Four nickel plants in Indonesia have temporarily halted operations due to landslides, affecting 30% of the country's high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) capacity, which may impact the global nickel supply chain [3] - China's trade surplus for January-February 2026 exceeded expectations, with exports surging by 21.8% year-on-year, indicating strong demand despite potential macroeconomic shocks [4] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The electrolytic aluminum supply chain faces systemic risks due to geopolitical tensions, with the Middle East's six countries having a combined capacity of 7.05 million tons per year, accounting for over 9% of global production [1] - Copper prices on the LME were $12,735.50 per ton, down 1.04% week-on-week, while aluminum prices increased by 0.23% to $3,439.00 per ton [19][23] - Nickel prices were reported at $17,320.00 per ton, down 0.74% week-on-week, with significant supply disruptions expected due to the Indonesian plant shutdowns [20][23] Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell to $5,023.10 per ounce, a decrease of 3.05% week-on-week, while silver prices dropped to $80.71 per ounce, down 4.76% [35][36] - The market is concerned about inflation rebounding due to rising oil prices, which may affect precious metal prices in the near term [35] Energy Metals - The price of lithium carbonate was reported at 156,900 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.27% week-on-week, while cobalt prices remained stable despite global supply chain disruptions [37][40] - The report highlights the potential for upward price movement in cobalt due to supply constraints and increased demand from downstream industries [40] Strategic Metals - The average price of praseodymium oxide was 874,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 5.16% week-on-week, while tungsten prices have seen significant increases [43] - The report suggests that strategic metals may benefit from easing export restrictions and a potential revaluation in the context of global supply chain independence [51]