尿素日报：情绪逐渐消散-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price continued to decline today mainly due to the dissipation of previous emotional interference, and the market has basically returned to the fundamentals. Currently, both supply and demand are strengthening marginally. Although the state reserve supply has impacted the market and the price has reached a high - range position, the strong support during the peak season is expected to lead to high - level fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened low and moved lower today, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%. The upstream factory quotes were stable, but the trading activity decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the state reserve supply will be fully released, and the market supply is abundant. Although the number of temporary shutdowns and overhauls of upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. The downstream demand includes both agricultural and industrial sectors. The terminal sales of compound fertilizers are smooth, and although the production has gradually recovered, the finished product inventory is still being depleted. The wheat top - dressing for greening has basically ended, but subsequent crops such as spring corn still require a large amount of high - nitrogen compound fertilizers. Despite the squeeze on factory profits due to rising raw material prices, high demand corresponds to high supply. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the energy - chemical sector has strongly driven the downstream purchasing sentiment. Coupled with the support of the spring plowing peak season, the inventory has continued to decline significantly, and most regions except Shanxi and Chongqing have seen inventory depletion [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1,878 yuan/ton, opened low and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%, and finally closed at 1,855 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change rate of - 1.70%. The trading volume was 227,858 lots (- 16,877 lots). Among the top twenty main positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 4,858 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,059 lots. Among them, GF Futures had a net long position of - 858 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of + 715 lots, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 4,162 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 1,755 lots. On March 18, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,499, a net increase of 444 compared with the previous trading day, with 444 from Zhongnong Cloud Warehouse [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - The upstream factory quotes were stable, but the trading activity decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 23 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [6]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 18, 2026, the daily national urea production was 215,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.17% [8]. 3.3.3. Enterprise Inventory Data - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 20, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, an increase of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [11].