螺纹日报：冲高回落-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of rebar showed a pattern of rising and then falling today. Affected by the decline and adjustment of energy and chemical products, combined with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2:00 am tomorrow, funds left the market for risk aversion. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but the upward space depends on the actual performance of peak - season demand, whether the inventory can be destocked, and changes in the cost side [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 34,625 lots, and the trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 860,500 lots. In terms of the moving average, in the short - term, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,138, and in the medium - term, it was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,110. The short - and medium - term trends strengthened [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,260 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was a short - term resumption of production, but the overall trend was still shrinking. The weekly resumption of production was a phased restart, and the production was still lower year - on - year. The supply side did not show full - scale relaxation [3]. - Demand side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and the sustainability needed to be verified. The significant weekly increase in apparent demand was mainly driven by restocking, and the terminal demand was still weaker than the same period last year [3]. - Inventory side: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons, with a significant inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons, with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. The inventory was accumulating at a high level, and the pressure to destock was high. The total inventory was still increasing year - on - year, and social inventory was the main pressure point. The inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - Cost and profit: The rebar price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support increased, and the sentiment was supported in the short term [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and repair of cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistently low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in destocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [6].