养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term supply of soybeans is tight, but the price decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans and the release of state - reserved soybeans [1]. - Corn may experience short - term price adjustments after continuous rises, but the adjustment range is limited, and it is advisable to consider replenishing stocks or buying on dips [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of eggs are still loose, but the inventory is expected to decline significantly in March, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. - The pig market is likely to repeatedly bottom out in the first half of the year, and the price may remain at 10.0 - 11.0 yuan/kg. The market is in the process of capacity reduction, and the far - month contracts may have some support but are still in the bottom - grinding stage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The price of Northeast soybeans has risen rapidly. Some large customers in the terminal market have sold the stored grains in the producing areas, increasing the remaining grains in the producing areas [1]. - The short - term supply is tight as the arrival of imported soybeans is expected in April. The high - premium policy auction today strengthened the market's perception of tight supply [1]. - Due to Brazil resuming soybean shipments and the disappointment of the expected growth in US soybean demand, the soybean price has fallen from its high, but the decline space is limited [1]. Corn - Last week, the price of Shandong corn approached 2500 yuan/ton with no trading volume increase. This week, with the significant increase in supply, the price turned from rising to falling [1]. - The demand for corn will gradually weaken in the later stage, and the game between capital and the industry will intensify. After continuous rises, the driving force for corn price increase has weakened, and short - term price adjustment may occur, but the adjustment range is limited [1]. Eggs - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid and substantial increase in egg prices [2]. - The number of newly laid hens will significantly decrease from March to April 2026, and the national laying - hen inventory will enter a significant decline channel from April to May [2]. - The sharp rise in feed raw materials has squeezed the profit of laying hens, which will accelerate the industry's capacity clearance. Although the short - term supply and demand are still loose, the inventory is expected to decline in March [2]. Pigs - In the first half of the year, the pig market is likely to repeatedly bottom out along the path of "loss - capacity reduction - rebound - hoarding - price cut - loss" due to the lack of a substantial supply gap and demand growth [3]. - In March, as the pig price fell below 10.5 yuan/kg, the losses of both breeding models exceeded 200 yuan per head [3]. - From March to April, the slaughter volume may gradually increase, but the average slaughter weight remains above 125 kg, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. The pig price may remain at 10.0 - 11.0 yuan/kg, and the continuous losses will accelerate the capacity reduction [3]. - The short - term demand for pigs is still weak, and the feed cost is rising, which worsens the breeding profit and drives short - term capacity clearance. The far - month contracts may have some support, but the supply - demand pattern will not change until the official data shows a significant decline [4].