PVC日报：低开后震荡下行-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the near term if the Strait of Hormuz fails to restore navigation. The upstream raw material supply of PVC is tight due to the non - resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and vessel attacks, leading to rising ethylene and calcium carbide prices. There are expectations of reduced production load in the domestic and overseas PVC markets, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. However, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and PVC social inventory remains high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply and Demand: The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week - on - week, being at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream operating rate of PVC rose 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, 3.13 percentage points lower than the same lunar period last year. The real estate market is still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas from January to February 2026. The export inquiry has improved due to rising Asian market prices [1]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise last week. As of the week of March 12, it increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 140.72 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still large. The futures warehouse receipts are at a high level [1][6]. - Price Trend: The PVC2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions, and oscillated downward, closing at 5735 yuan/ton with a 1.31% decline. The basis in East China is - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening by 106 yuan/ton, at a neutral - to - low level [2][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract opened lower, with a minimum price of 5695 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5950 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5735 yuan/ton. The position decreased by 46728 lots to 855380 lots [2]. - Basis: On March 18, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 5710 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5735 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening by 106 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week - on - week, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua was in trial production in December 2025 [4]. - Demand: The real estate market is in adjustment. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%. The new construction area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. As of the week of March 15, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 43.23% week - on - week, but it was still at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of March 12, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 140.72 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still at a high level [6].