沪铜日报：关注美联储议息会议-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The copper price is under pressure. Although the shortage of copper resources supports the price, the weak feedback from the terminal and the expected inflation due to rising oil prices, along with the possible impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision, make the copper price lack a logical basis for an upward movement [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. The shortage of overseas copper resources and shipping difficulties due to war support the copper price. The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The electrolytic copper output in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year [1]. - Demand: After entering the peak season (Golden March and Silver April), the copper product segment's production has started to pick up. In February, the copper cable industry's operating rate was 55.81%, a 14.29 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month but a 9.06 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. However, the terminal data is not optimistic, and the new energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year - on - year respectively [1]. - Macro - factor: The Fed's interest - rate meeting is expected to keep the March interest rate unchanged, and the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 will be crucial. Rising oil prices lead to inflation, which strengthens the US dollar and suppresses the copper price [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower during the day [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 5 yuan/ton. On March 17, 2026, the LME official price is 12,790 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 113 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply - side - As of March 16, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 60.12 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 6.10 US cents/pound [8]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 318,600 tons, a decrease of 5,665 tons from the previous period. As of March 16, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 83,900 tons, a decrease of 0.63 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 330,400 tons, an increase of 18,775 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 588,400 short tons, a decrease of 1,883 short tons from the previous period [11].