冠通期货研究报告：软商品日报：震荡为主-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of cotton processing trade sliding-duty tariff quotas by the state is aimed at alleviating the tight supply of raw materials during the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" and stabilizing the production expectations of export-oriented textile enterprises. Although it exerts some short - term pressure on cotton prices, its long - term impact on the overall pattern of the domestic cotton market is limited. Due to the delay of Trump's visit to China, the near - term demand growth expectation may not be met, causing a certain decline in cotton prices, but the decline is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] - As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 10.5%. China's sugar imports from January to February 2026 increased significantly year - on - year. The sugar market is generally in a stage of loose supply and demand, especially the international raw sugar supply and demand is obviously loose. The domestic market is stronger than the foreign market in the first half of the year, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - The state issued an additional 300,000 tons of cotton processing trade sliding - duty tariff quotas, much earlier than the usual time from July to August. This move aims to ease the tight supply of raw materials during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and stabilize the production expectations of export - oriented textile enterprises. In the short term, it puts pressure on cotton prices, but has limited long - term impact on the domestic cotton market. The delay of Trump's visit to China may lead to a decline in cotton prices, but the decline is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] Sugar - As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 10.5%. In January and February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, a year - on - year increase of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons respectively. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative sugar imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,900 tons. As of the end of February in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.2826 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 741,700 tons. The sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, especially the international raw sugar supply and demand is obviously loose. The domestic market is stronger than the foreign market in the first half of the year, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [1][2]