铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The iron ore market is facing short - term disturbances and fundamental pressures. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to be weakly volatile. The overall fundamental situation is weak, but due to supply and geopolitical disturbances, the short - term downward space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a bias towards strength intraday, closing at 811 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 189,000 lots, an open interest of 456,000 lots, and a settled capital of 8.127 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. It may continue to face pressure near the upper pressure and enter a volatile consolidation [1]. - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port remained unchanged at 798 yuan/ton, the price of Super Special powder remained unchanged at 675 yuan/ton, and the price of the main swap was 107.9 (- 0.9) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, while the spot price had little fluctuation [1]. - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 831.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20.3 yuan/ton, and the basis widened. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 32 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 21 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing an increase. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2]. - Demand side: The rhythm of blast furnace inspections and restarts was mismatched. The molten iron output this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills increased, and after the Two Sessions, the molten iron output is likely to recover month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly month - on - month, the inventory under berthing decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly. There are still disturbance expectations in supply and the macro - environment, the liquidity expectation of some spot varieties is tightened, the futures and spot prices are strengthening, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro - environment has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The reality of external demand resilience has been initially confirmed, and the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital aspects. High - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [3]. - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and the market's concern about the economic stagflation in the first quarter of the United States has further increased. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation promoted by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]. View Summary The iron ore fundamentals are still loose on the supply side, the molten iron output on the demand side has decreased, the restart rhythm has been postponed, and the port inventory has accumulated. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the double disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The positive basis of iron ore futures and spot and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downward space, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [4].