玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡走弱-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the market rebound. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillations and short - term adjustments [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The key to short - term price changes lies in the impact of geopolitical situations on international energy prices, and it may face downward adjustment risks [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened and closed lower, with intraday oscillations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band is contracting, showing a short - term oscillation signal. The pressure is around the 5 - day moving average of 1100, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band at 1050. The trading volume increased by 58,680 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 28,498 lots. The intraday high was 1100, the low was 1064, and the closing price was 1066, down 30 yuan/ton or 2.74% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - Core contradiction: The core contradiction is the game between "supply contraction expectations" and "weak real - demand", and high inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound [1]. - Market outlook: Short - term fuel and soda ash raw material prices are falling, the cost - side support is weakening, and downstream demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations and short - term adjustments. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and terminal demand recovery [1]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, with intraday oscillations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band is opening, showing a short - term weak - oscillation signal. The pressure is around the 5 - day moving average of 1250, and the intraday support is around the 60 - day moving average of 1200. The trading volume increased by 105,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 864 lots. The intraday high was 1250, the low was 1205, and the closing price was 1211, down 32 yuan/ton or 2.57% from yesterday's settlement price [4]. - Core logic: The core logic is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks drive up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction, providing support for the market. However, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak due to the expected reduction in float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry [4]. - Market outlook: The key to short - term price changes lies in the impact of geopolitical situations on international energy prices. As the market's emotional impact of the conflict gradually weakens, soda ash will face the structural contradiction of weak reality and high inventory and may face downward adjustment risks. Attention should be paid to international energy price changes and whether the high inventory of soda ash can continue to be reduced [4].