沥青日报：低开后震荡运行-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is currently at a relatively low level, with the开工 rate dropping to 23.0% and the inventory rate remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the overall supply - demand situation is improving. The cost support is significant, and due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the expected reduction in refinery production has increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will be strong and volatile in the near future, following the trend of crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 218.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.1 million tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3 million tons (1.9%) [1]. - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most of the asphalt downstream industries'开工 rates increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9%, still lower than the level at the end of January [1]. - After the refineries in Shandong resumed production and the prices rose, the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking increased, and the national shipment volume increased by 12.67% to 17.61 million tons, but it was still at a low level [1]. - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong was stable, and the basis was at a relatively low level [1]. - China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and due to the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the Middle East raw material supply will be affected. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1]. - This week, Dongming Petrochemical resumed production, the asphalt开工率 increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, the terminal demand gradually recovered, the asphalt's supply - demand situation improved, the cost support was significant, and the market focused on the tense situation in the Middle East. The refinery production reduction expectation increased, and it is expected that the asphalt price will be strong and volatile in the near future, following the trend of crude oil prices [1]. 3.2期现行情 - The asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 0.11% to 4400 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4337 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4509 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 8479 to 261472 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 4090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to - 310 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still in a year - on - year negative growth situation. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to February 2026 was 11.4%, a significant improvement from - 2.2% from January to December 2025 [4]. - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most of the asphalt downstream industries'开工 rates increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9%, still lower than the level at the end of January [4]. - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained unchanged at 17.7% compared with the week of March 6, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was still at the lowest level in recent years [4].