热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly bullish" rating for the hot-rolled coil industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil main contract is expected to continue to operate in a shockingly bullish manner. The short - and medium - term trends are strengthening, standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The current situation is high inventory, weak demand, and cost support. The supply has declined recently, and the demand has seasonally rebounded. Attention should be paid to the inventory depletion speed, changes in export orders, and cost - side changes [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 7,990 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 358,351 lots, showing increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The short - term moving average has broken above the 5 - day moving average around 3,298, the 30 - day moving average is 3,251, and the medium - term pressure is around the 60 - day moving average of 3,267 [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coil in the mainstream area of Shanghai is reported at 3,310 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot is 0 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output is 2.9526 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 233,900 tons. Steel mills have actively reduced production, and both the year - on - year and week - on - week output have declined, alleviating the supply - side pressure [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption is 2.9536 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 137,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 359,900 tons. The weekly apparent consumption has rebounded, but it is still weak year - on - year, and the demand has not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory is 3.8231 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 504,100 tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The terminal demand's carrying capacity is insufficient. The steel mill inventory is 892,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory has been reduced. The total inventory is 4.7159 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 553,700 tons. The total inventory has a high year - on - year increase, the social inventory has accumulated significantly, the inventory - to - sales ratio is still at a high level, and the market's inventory depletion pressure has not been fundamentally relieved [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the market's medium - and long - term confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the downstream orders have not seen substantial improvement. It still takes time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [5] - Bearish factors: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]