油粕日报：关注近月到港-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazilian soybean exports in March 2026 are slower than last year, while the average export price has increased; the supply of soybeans in April has shifted from loose to slightly tight, and the price of soybean meal has fallen from a high level but still has some support below. [1][2] - If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, Indonesia may accelerate the implementation of its B50 plan, and palm oil prices have room to rise further; it is estimated that the average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 is 4,100 ringgit per ton. [2] - In the context of high - oil prices, the policy benefits of biofuels in Indonesia and the United States may be gradually realized; it is expected that the prices of edible oils will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month. [3] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) has updated the phytosanitary certification procedures for grain shipments to China, with samples mainly collected by independent supervision companies. MAPA inspectors will still sample 1 in every 10 ships. The new rule takes effect immediately for unsampled goods. [1] - From March 1 - 13, 2026, Brazilian soybean exports were 6.507 million tons, and the average daily export volume decreased by 15.6% year - on - year. The average export price per ton increased by 5.4% year - on - year. [1] - Brazil temporarily cancelled a quarantine measure, but the arrival of soybean ships in April was postponed to May, and the soybean supply in April shifted from loose to slightly tight. Trump postponed his visit to China, and the demand for US soybeans weakened, causing soybean meal prices to fall from a high level, with some support below. Attention should be paid to subsequent soybean reserve release announcements. [2] Edible Oils - If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Indonesia may accelerate the implementation of B50 to save foreign exchange. The average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 is predicted to be 4,100 ringgit per ton, and there is room for further price increases if B50 is implemented. [2] - From March 1 - 15, 2026, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 443,812 tons, an increase of 12.68% compared with the same period last month. [2] - High crude oil prices make biofuel - producing countries eager to implement policies, and the policy benefits may be realized as oil prices remain high. It is estimated that edible oils will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation around the end of the month. [3]