山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of precious metals is weak today. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed down 0.79%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed down 2.37%, Platinum's main contract closed down 1.18%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 1.73% [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Iran rejected the proposal to de - escalate the conflict, and Israel claimed to have killed an Iranian security official. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, and the world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation. The market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the latest US consumer spending has grown steadily, and the Iranian situation will intensify inflation pressure. The unexpected decrease in US employment and the rise in the unemployment rate in February challenge the Fed's view that the labor market is stabilizing. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of an interest rate hike is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's rate - cutting cycle is nearing its end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a low level in the medium term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5011.30 per ounce, down $187.40 (-3.60%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $5016.80 per ounce, up $21.95 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $192.90 (-3.70%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1113.52 yuan per gram, down 2.68 yuan (-0.24%) from the previous day and down 38.46 yuan (-3.34%) from the previous week [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1381 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons (-0.27%) [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.46 per ounce, down $1.54 (-1.90%) from the previous day and down $9.11 (-10.29%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $80.22 per ounce, up $1.27 (1.61%) from the previous day and down $8.31 (-9.39%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 19980 yuan per kilogram, down 328 yuan (-1.62%) from the previous day and down 2276 yuan (-10.23%) from the previous week [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2407 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 149.31 tons (-0.96%) [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up $88.70 (4.38%) from the previous day and down $76.00 (-3.47%) from the previous week; London platinum closed at $2118.00 per ounce, up $41.00 (1.97%) from the previous day and down $14.00 (-0.66%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 19.90 yuan (3.73%) from the previous day and down 9.85 yuan (-1.75%) from the previous week [6] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2633 lots [6] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day and down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week; London palladium closed at $1601.00 per ounce, down $49.00 (-3.04%) from the previous day and down $49.00 (-2.97%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 9.20 yuan (2.31%) from the previous day and down 15.80 yuan (-3.73%) from the previous week [7] - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained at - 362 lots [7] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8] - US economic data: GDP (annualized YoY): 2.10%, down 0.30% from the previous value; unemployment rate: 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous value; non - farm payrolls monthly change: - 9.20 million, down 2.18% from the previous value [8][10] - Other data: Geopolitical risk index: 248.83, down 46.73 (-15.81%) from the previous week; VIX index: 22.37, down 1.14 (-4.85%) from the previous day and down 2.56 (-10.27%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index: 364.40, up 4.68 (1.30%) from the previous day and up 9.43 (2.66%) from the previous week [10] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points on March 18, 2026, is 99.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in the future [12]