PP日报：PP低开后震荡运行-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - PP price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, the chemical anti - involution is still expected, and the Middle East situation boosts energy and chemicals. However, downstream has a resistance to high prices and spot trading is weak [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly as it has low acceptance of high - price raw materials. But the operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawing continued to rise by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54%. On March 18, the number of shutdown devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 77.5%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 22.5%. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory has been continuously reduced, and it is currently at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the Middle East situation, the crude oil price remains high. Although the device operating rate has recovered slightly, it is still lower than that at the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened lower and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 8,530 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,895 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.23%. The position decreased by 725 lots to 372,576 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions showed mixed trends. The price of drawing was reported at 8,120 - 8,880 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 18, the number of shutdown devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 77.5%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 22.5% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly as it has low acceptance of high - price raw materials. But the operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawing continued to rise by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 850,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $102 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $40 per ton to $1,100 per ton week - on - week [4].