塑料日报：低开后震荡运行-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 18, the change in parking devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week-on-week as of the week of March 13. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory continued to decline, and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil remains high. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. The domestic supply-demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The situation in the Middle East boosts the energy and chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the refinery load reduction will further increase. Recently, the plastic price has been oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 18, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory continued to decline, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil remains high. New production capacities were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. The domestic supply-demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The situation in the Middle East boosts the energy and chemical industry. The shortage of raw materials has increased the load reduction of olefin plants at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, with weak spot transactions. Recently, the plastic price has been oscillating strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened lower and then increased positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 8,357 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,683 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,431 yuan/ton, above the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.78%. The position increased by 10,242 lots to 343,958 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from -100 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,280 - 8,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,130 - 11,260 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,370 - 9,440 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 18, the change in parking devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but have not returned to the pre-holiday level, showing a seasonal change [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 850,000 tons week-on-week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $102/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $50/ton to $1,250/ton week-on-week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $50/ton to $1,250/ton week-on-week [4]