每日核心期货品种分析-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 18, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Methanol rose over 3%, while polysilicon dropped over 5% and lithium carbonate declined over 4%. Different varieties have different market performances and influencing factors, and investors are advised to pay attention to market dynamics and risk control [6] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview: As of the close on March 18, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Methanol rose over 3%, ethylene glycol (EG) rose over 1%; in terms of declines, polysilicon dropped over 5%, lithium carbonate declined over 4%, and many other varieties such as industrial silicon and红枣 dropped over 2%. In the stock index futures, the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.13%, the Shanghai 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract dropped 0.38%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.68%. In the bond futures, the 2 - year bond futures (TS), 5 - year bond futures (TF), 10 - year bond futures (T), and 30 - year bond futures (TL) main contracts all rose. In terms of capital flow, methanol 2605, Shanghai silver 2606, and ten - year bond 2606 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2603, Shanghai - Shenzhen 2603, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis - Copper: The Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, falling during the day. The supply of copper concentrates in February 2026 increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is relatively low, and the shortage of copper resources supports the copper price. The substitution of recycled copper has weakened. The production of electrolytic copper increased in March. The demand of the copper product end started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The production and sales of new energy vehicles declined year - on - year. With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, the market expects the interest rate to remain unchanged in March. The rising oil price and inflation pressure suppress the copper price, and the copper price is under pressure [9] - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower, falling over 4% during the day. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined. The export of lithium concentrates in Zimbabwe is temporarily restricted, but it does not affect the production. The upstream production is gradually increasing, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium ore resumption. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate of depletion is narrowing. The downstream inventory is accumulating, but the rate of accumulation is slowing. The demand growth is showing a weakening trend. Although the domestic demand is weak, the terminal export is increasing. The lithium carbonate market is in a shock stage, and the price has a bottom support [11] - Crude Oil: The EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the refined oil inventory decreased significantly, resulting in a decrease in the overall oil product inventory. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues. Iran's oil production and export are large, and the Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, leading to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures have been taken to relieve the short - term supply pressure, the supply is still tight. The risk of the crude oil price rising remains, and the Middle - East situation has a great impact on the crude oil price [12][13] - Asphalt: The asphalt's supply - end operating rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The expected production in March 2026 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream operating rate mostly increased after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate of asphalt plants remained unchanged, and the inventory rate of refineries is at the lowest level in recent years. The price in Shandong is stable. Due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on raw material supply, the asphalt price is expected to be strong and volatile, following the crude oil price [14][16] - PP: As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased slightly. The enterprise operating rate is at a low level, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials remains high due to the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. Although the downstream is resistant to high prices, the PP price is expected to be strong and volatile [17] - Plastic: On March 18, the plastic operating rate remained stable at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials remains high. The supply has new capacity put into operation in the early stage, and the operating rate has decreased recently. The downstream demand has increased after the Lantern Festival. The domestic supply - demand pattern has improved. Although the downstream is resistant to high prices, the plastic price is expected to be strong and volatile [18][19] - PVC: The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased slightly and is at a relatively high neutral level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased after the Spring Festival, but it is still lower than the same period last year. The export inquiry has improved. The social inventory is still high, and the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on raw material supply, the PVC price is expected to be strong and volatile [20] - Coking Coal: The coking coal opened high and moved low, falling over 1% in the afternoon. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly, and the domestic coal production resumed. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly, and the downstream replenished the inventory. The production of coke has not increased significantly, and the steel - mill profit has recovered, but the start - up speed is slower than in previous years. The coal fundamentals are weak, and the future trend depends on the demand [22] - Urea: Urea opened low and moved low, falling nearly 2% during the day. The upstream factory quotation is stable, and the trading activity decreased. The market supply of urea is abundant before the end of the month. The downstream demand comes from both agriculture and industry. The inventory has decreased significantly. The urea price fell today due to the dissipation of the previous emotional interference. The supply and demand are both strengthening, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [23]